Pacing Through the Luxury Lens
Cromford Market Index Report

Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities

The table deteriorated for sellers since last week, but only slightly. The average change in CMI over the past month is +0.4%, down from 0.8%. There is a wide gap between the top and the bottom of the table.

We have 7 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 10 have declined.

There are no other cities with double figure percentage increases.

10 out of 17 cities are still seller's markets. We have 3 cities that are balanced and 4 are buyer's markets.

Both supply and demand are rising, but both at a very slow pace. Supply has slightly more momentum and so the overall CMI has fallen back from 117 to 115 over the past month. This slight deterioration for sellers is not what they hope to experience in the prime buying season. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to 6.85% on March 8, but has climbed back over 7% again. We are not anticipating significant improvement in demand unless and until we see rates fall lower and stay consistently below 6.5%.

Pricing in the ultra-luxury market has gone a little berserk over the last year. This has caused the annual average $/SF for Paradise Valley single-family detached homes to increase by 16%. There is no other city even close to this 16% appreciation rate and the majority of cities are still in negative territory. The premium for living in Paradise Valley is the highest we have ever seen. Is this a new normal or will we see a reversion to the long-term trend line?